Ukrainian forces will break through entire Russian defense in southern Ukraine by end of 2023 – ISW
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 7 and made further gains on both sectors of the front, according to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Satellite imagery collected on September 6 shows burning foliage in a tree line roughly a kilometer northwest of Verbove, suggesting that Russian forces are firing on advancing Ukrainian forces in the area. Geolocated footage published on September 7 indicates that Ukrainian forces have made marginal gains northwest of Klischiyivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut),” the report says.
In turn, Russian forces continued offensive operations along Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in Bakhmut direction, along the Avdiyivka-Donetsk City line, and in Donetsk-Zaporizhia region border area but did not make any confirmed advances on September 7.
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director of Analysis Trent Maul stated that there is a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces will break through the entire Russian defense in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023, while a Ukrainian source suggested that upcoming Russian defensive positions are weaker than those Ukrainian forces have previously breached, the analysts note.
“The subsequent series of Russian defensive positions may be weaker, less mined, and less manned than the defensive layer that Ukrainian forces have breached. Russian defenses are not uniform across the front in southern Ukraine, however, and assessments of the strength of subsequent Russian defensive positions may be extrapolations based on limited information from small sectors of the front. Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains and successfully attriting defending Russian forces and ISW continues to assess Ukraine’s counteroffensive may achieve operational successes in 2023, but subsequent series of Russian defensive positions still pose significant challenges for Ukrainian forces and may in sections be strongly held,” the report reads.
It is reported that the authorities of Moscow region have detained commander of the 1st army of anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense of special purpose Konstantin Ogienko on charges of bribery and corruption against the background of ongoing and intensifying drone attacks on Moscow. “While ISW has not observed evidence to suggest that Ogienko was detained for reasons other than bribery charges, Russian sources have recently complained that Russian air defense elements are responsible for failing to curb increased drone attacks on Moscow, and Ogienko’s removal could be a response to such allegations,” the message reads.
