Attempted military coup on June 23-24, apparently, doesn’t have significant impact on combat capability of Russian army – ISW

The armed mutiny of the Wagner PMC on June 23-24 did not seem to have a significant impact on the ability of Russian troops to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine, according to a review by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

As noted, the fighting continued as usual along the entire front line, while Russian troops conducted relatively more ground attacks near Bakhmut than in the past few days.

At the same time, some Russian sources used the armed rebellion in order to justify the Russian forces in advance in case of any successes of Ukraine achieved on June 24 and June 25, analysts say.

However, the ISW report says that Lukashenko's deal with Prigozhin may lead to a change in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

“The implications of the Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal for the leadership of the Russian MoD also remain ambiguous … the Kremlin may be considering changes to MoD leadership as part of the deal,” the report reads.

It is noted that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov have not been seen or heard from since before Prigozhin announced the beginning of the armed rebellion on June 23. Some Russian sources suggested that Alexei Dyumin, the current governor of Tula region, former security officer to Putin, and former head of Russia’s Special Operations Forces, may replace Shoigu as the Defense Minister, although ISW cannot confirm these speculations.

“Any changes to the MoD leadership would notably represent a significant victory for Prigozhin, who justified his armed rebellion by directly accusing Shoigu and Gerasimov of the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine,” the ISW analysts say.