NBU revises downwards surplus of Ukraine's consolidated balance of payment for 2017 to $1.1 bln

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has worsened the forecast for the surplus of Ukraine's consolidated balance of payment for 2017 to $1.1 billion compared to the preliminary forecast of $1.2 billion issued in October 2016, while for 2018 it was improved from $3.8 billion to $4 billion.

According to the materials of the NBU published on Thursday, the central bank assessed the surplus of the country's consolidated balance of payment in 2016 at $900 million, and this is $800 million more than in 2015, but it is less than the preliminary forecast of $1.7 billion made in October.

The revision downwards is linked to the revision of the deficit of the current account by the NBU for 2016 from $2.5 billion to $3.4 billion compared to $200 million in 2015.

The regulator also worsened the forecast for the deficit of the current account in 2017 from $2.9 billion to $3.5 billion and in 2018 – from $2.8 billion to $3.4 billion.

Deputy NBU Governor Dmytro Solohub said at a press conference on Thursday that the deficit of the current account will be covered thanks to inflow of debt capital. He said that the central bank expects that net inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2017 would remain at the level of 2016 – around $1.1 billion.

Solohub said that formally FDI inflow in 2016 was around $3.3 billion, according to the NBU assessments, while two thirds of the sum was debt conversion transactions of banks.

"Net inflow is around $1.1 billion. We expect that this year it will be at the same level. We see a potential in privatization," he said.

According to his forecasts, this year sale of cash foreign currency by Ukrainians will still exceed its purchase, but the balance would considerably fall compared to $2.5 billion in 2016.