Increasingly regular series of Russian drone, missile strikes likely aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive – ISW

Russia has intensified its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine likely with the aim of degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive operations, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its report on May 14.

"Increasingly regular series of Russian drone and missile strikes are likely a part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term," it said.

Russian forces have conducted at least ten series of strikes throughout Ukraine, particularly in rear areas, since April 19.

However, Russia used significantly fewer high precision missiles in these latest series of strikes in comparison to their failed campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure from the fall of 2022 through the winter of 2023.

Western analysts also said that the current Russian air campaign may be using far fewer of these missiles in an effort to conserve the limited remaining stocks.

"Russian forces have instead relied heavily on launching large numbers of Iranian-made Shahed drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, although Ukrainian forces have been more effective in shooting down Russian precision systems than during the previous Russian air campaign," says the report.

The new Russian air campaign appears to be focused on Kyiv and alleged Ukrainian military industrial and logistics facilities in deep rear areas.