Ukrainian defense forces need to conduct not one, but series of successful counter-offensives – ISW
The Ukrainian defense forces need to conduct not one, but a series of successful counter-offensives in order to convince Putin to start negotiations on conditions other than achieving all of his stated goals, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Western analysts believe that the Ukrainian forces must show that they can do what the Russian forces cannot, namely, change the reality on the spot by military action. They must inflict even more damage on the Russian military force so that it becomes clear to Putin and his inner circle that the Russian armed forces cannot hope to improve the situation for them by continuing hostilities.
ISW analysts believe that there is reason to expect that the Ukrainian forces can really achieve success through a counteroffensive. After all, in this war, Ukraine has already conducted two major counter-offensive operations, not counting the voluntary withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv.
At the same time, the authors of the ISW report emphasize Putin's unwillingness to consider a scenario other than the complete surrender of Ukraine and note that it is far from clear whether Putin will ever accept the new realities won by the Ukrainian side on the battlefield. “He may resolve to continue fighting, with or without a pause, as long as it takes to achieve all his aims. His rhetoric and actions, as well as his past patterns, certainly suggest this possibility. A negotiated settlement may therefore be unattainable because Putin will not accept the reality that he cannot actually conquer Ukraine,” the report reads.
Nevetherless, the analysts note that “it is not a given, nevertheless, that Putin will continue fighting regardless of cost until the day he dies. He has ostentatiously and surprisingly refrained from going all-in on this war from its inception. One can dismiss his failure fully to mobilize and prepare his military before the invasion because he clearly believed that the Ukrainians would not or could not fight. He has passed by multiple moments when moving to fuller mobilization had become necessary, has delayed decisions to implement even partial mobilization for far too long from Russia’s perspective, and even when he has made such decisions has sought to limit their impact on the Russian society and economy.”
Nevertheless, analysts emphasize, Putin is not putting any conditions on the negotiating table now, except for the complete success of Russia. He is not taking military measures that would be prudent if he were serious about finding some kind of non-standard or compromise settlement through negotiations. The current front lines would create very favorable conditions for the resumption of the Russian invasion if Putin offered to accept them as a ceasefire line, but he clearly does not want to do this.
Thus, experts of the Institute for the Study of War believe that the choice now facing Ukraine and its Western supporters is relatively simple, analysts of the Institute for the Study of War say. “Ukrainian forces can continue fighting in a very constrained way seeking only to hold what they now have, which will encourage Putin to continue his efforts to pursue outright military victory. Or they can launch successive counter-offensive operations with the twin aims of persuading Putin to accept a negotiated compromise or of creating military realities sufficiently favorable to Ukraine that Kyiv and its Western allies can then effectively freeze the conflict on their own regardless of Putin’s decisions.”
