Russia to activate its info operation about possible war escalation if Ukraine receives weapons capable of striking Crimea – ISW
Russia will step up its information operation to spread the opinion about the likely escalation of the war if Ukraine receives weapons from its Western allies capable of striking Russian troops on the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for January 19.
It is noted that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the West's supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine, which may threaten Russian forces in Crimea, will bring "the conflict to a new qualitative level, which will not benefit global and pan-European security." He added that even discussing the provision of such weapons is "potentially extremely dangerous," but then noted that Ukraine already has weapons that it uses to attack the occupied Ukrainian territories.
Analysts emphasize that Crimea is the territory of Ukraine, and Ukraine has the right, in accordance with the laws and norms of the armed conflict, to strike at Russian military facilities in Crimea.
At the same time, according to international law and norms, it also has the right to attack targets in Russia, since the occupying country does not reserve the right of refuge for military purposes on its territory.
The Institute is convinced that Peskov's threats are part of a Russian information operation aimed at preventing the West from supporting Ukraine, and do not correspond to Russia's real capabilities to escalate against the West. They add that the Kremlin is also unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and it is extremely unlikely that it will use them against the West, despite the fact that it constantly relies on threats of nuclear escalation.
It is also reported that senior Kremlin officials continue to hold high-level meetings with the Belarusian leadership, which may create conditions for Russia to attack Ukraine from Belarus, although this may not happen, and certainly not in the coming weeks. At the same time, it is noted that the so-called "Russian military commanders" continue to criticize the idea of Russian troops attacking Ukraine from Belarus, stating that it is a bad idea for Russia to significantly expand the front.
Alexander Lukashenko himself continues to balance, portraying Belarus as a sovereign state within a Union state dominated by Russia.
In addition, analysts report that Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly taking the side of the opponents of oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is the founder of the Wagner PMC.
“Prigozhin nevertheless continues to use claims about the Wagner Group’s tactical success to elevate his position, likely deepening a conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for influence in the Russian information space,” the report reads.
As for the situation on the battlefield, the Institute reports that the Ukrainian army continues to attack the occupiers' positions in Svatovo area of Luhansk region, and also continues to strike at the occupiers' positions in the rear.
The Russian invaders are also trying to continue offensive actions in the area of Bakhmut, as well as several villages in Zaporizhia region.
