Russia creating conditions for withdrawal from right-bank part of Kherson region, preparing attack on Kakhovska HPP – ISW
Russian troops are likely deliberately removing large amounts of personnel and equipment from the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of the imminent offensive of Ukraine in Kherson region, according to a report by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for October 20.
“Russian troops are likely deliberately removing large amounts of personnel and equipment from the west bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces have likely learned, at least in part, from their failures during the panicked Russian retreat from Kharkiv region in the face of a previous Ukrainian counteroffensive … Such a rout in Kherson could trap Russian forces and equipment on the west bank of the Dnipro River,” the message reads.
At the same time, experts note that the Russian Federation probably continues to prepare for an attack on Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in order to blame the Ukrainian side for this. “Russian sources continued to accuse Ukrainian forces of shelling the Kakhovka HPP and have widely circulated graphics depicting the flood path in the event of a dam breach. Russian sources are likely setting information conditions for Russian forces to blow the dam after they withdraw from western Kherson region and accuse Ukrainian forces of flooding the Dnipro River and surrounding settlements, partially in an attempt to cover their retreat further into eastern Kherson region. Continued Russian preparation for a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka HPP is also likely meant to distract from reports of Russian losses in Kherson region,” the report says.
The White House confirmed on October 20 that Iranian military personnel are in Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine, to assist Russian forces in conducting drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure, the ISW reports. “Senior Iranian officials and state media frequently argue that Tehran must expand strategic relations with Russia and China to cooperate toward countering US global influence. Iranian leaders may worry that a Russian failure in Ukraine would seriously disrupt this vision and possibly threaten Vladimir Putin’s hold on power and, therefore, Iran’s security. Iran could further expand its military support to Russia in the coming months,” the report says.
The analysts note that the risk of a Russian offensive from Belarus into northern Ukraine remains low despite a prominent Ukrainian official’s October 20 warning that the risk of a Russian offensive from Belarus is “growing.” Deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, stated that the risk of a renewed offensive from Russian forces against northern Ukraine is growing. “Such a course of action remains unlikely in the coming months given that Russian forces lack the capability even to interdict Ukrainian supply lines from the west with a ground offensive … Belarus may concentrate manpower on the border to fix Ukrainian forces in northern Ukraine and prevent their deployment to the active area of operation in southern and eastern Ukraine,” the ISW said.
According to the analysts, Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian troops have advanced in northern Kherson region as Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign. Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast but Russian sources contradicted their own claims on control of Bakhmut. Russian forces are likely continuing to falsify claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine.
Russian regional governments and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continue to blame each other for military administrative failures.
